Power that corrupts

When it comes my investment decisions, the one big corporate no-no is corruption, or even the whiff of corruption.  I will never invest in a company with weak moral standards.  I once had shares in ICAP but I would never consider it again (at least not under current management).

For readers who are not aware, the largest single shareholder in ICAP ( a gentleman called Michael Spencer) managed to offload £45m of shares a month before ICAP announced a profit warning.  Apparently Michael Spencer had no idea that profits would be down!  C’mon Michael we are not idiots.  I have spent the last 20 years working in finance departments of large City businesses.  Forecasting is the key skill of these businesses.  You knew what was happening.

Lets hope the FSA throw the book at him.  Lets hope David Cameron throws the book at him (Michael also happens to be the Conservative Party Treasurer – a position that requires good numbers skills, no?).  The moral standing of both these organisations will go down if they turn a blind eye.  Lets wait and see if they have the cojones!

Anyway, those people that bought the shares from Mr Spencer (perhaps your pension fund) are down about a third of their investment.  We should all be angry about this even if we are not shareholders in the company.

I read today that this is not the first time that Michael Spencer or ICAP have been implicated in wrong doings.  They have got away with it in the past and probably will this time.  But there is no smoke without fire.  I for one will not be touching this company in the future or any others that Mr Spencer is involved in.

This episode has encouraged me to start reporting on corporate wrong doings.  I have seen a few in my times and continue to see powerful people abusing their power – through expenses, self-serving corporate policies, dis-respect etc….

I would also love to have any stories from readers.  Lets expose them and, at the same time, celebrate examples of good corporate behavior.  Please join in!

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Farewell ETrade, hello TD Waterhouse

TD Waterhouse logo

Well after being a customer of eTrade for over 10 years it looks like I will need to get used to a new execution only broker.  Yes, Etrade have, as a result of a strategic review, decided to pull out of the UK execution only broking business.  Presumably lower volumes due to the world-wide recession, coupled with volatile markets, have made their business unprofitable.  I seem to recall stories about their parent company suffering as a result of the credit crunch so I guess they have taken the opportunity to free up some capital and get out!

Anyway, my SIPP (together with a couple of self-select ISAs) will be automatically transfered to TD Waterhouse “over the next few months”.  All a bit vague at the moment  but I guess I need to have faith that the transfer will go smoothly.

I have had a quick look at the TD Waterhouse website and, I must admit, it looks good!  in fact the look and feel is nicer than the Etrade one.

The charge per trade depends upon your monthly transaction volumes but looks to be in line with eTrade.  Hopefully the reduced competition will note allow an increase in charges to customers.  Lets wait and see!

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Best blogs about investing

Of course, this is a fantastic blog about investing (I am sooo modest) but, from time to time, I will write about some of the investment blogs that inspire me.  Rather than produce a list I will introduce them individually.

I’ll start with one of my favourite bloggers – a guy called Ulli Niemann.  He writes a blog called “the Wall Street Bully“.  I like his style and his discplined approach to trend following.  He has just blogged about “the lost decade” – commenting on the negative returns for most investors over the last 10 years.

Every week he updates his readers on where the stock market trends currently sit against moving averages and whether he recommends being long or holding cash to protect capital.  Note – he does not recommend shorting.

He tends to invest in ETFs.  I recommend that you read and subscribe to his blog to get into the mindset of a successful trend follower.

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Current Portfolio Update

I have just updated my current portfolio page so that you can see at a glance where my money is invested.  I must remember to do this more often!

Please remember this is not intended as a model portfolio or as any kind of tip to follow.  This is just where my investment style (trend following tempered with a sprinkling of fundamentals!) has led me.

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Share Purchase – Cosalt

This week I bought a share purely because I thought it had bottomed out.  This opportunistic approach is not something I normally do.  Normally I like to see strong upward momentum before I buy.  However, with all the markets flattening out and talk of bubbles bursting I wanted to find a share that has already been as badly ravaged by the market as it can be.

I bought 12,500 Cosalt shares at 12p each, and, as you can see from the graph, the shares have been bobbling around at around 10p for months after a spectacular fall from around 300p in just over a year.  The shares have recently broken above the 60 day moving average.  I may have been premature in my purchase because I would normally like to see them move above the 200 day moving average as well.  But nothing ventured, nothing gained!

Cosalt Share price

Cosalt Share price

I like to look at the fundamentals too (but with less interest than the share price itself).  The company makes safety equipment for maritime use.  It has recently divested itself of several non-core businesses.

As usual I only put a pre-defined portion of my fund into any purchase (around 5%) so, even if this decision is a disaster, it will not break the bank!

I will keep you informed of progress on this, and all other investments in my  SIPP.

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An update on my favourite share

I wrote recently about my favorite share.  Well I am pleased to say that Inland PLC continues to go from strength to strength.  Signs that the UK property market has bottomed out make it a speculative buy.  The shares currently stand at 20.5p making a 100% return on my first investment in the company back in June.  Since then I have added at 14p and 18p.

Recent news from the company is all positive.  A small disposal realised some cash and a tidy profit.  Directors have been buying in recent weeks.  Even the finance director is buying more for himself and his son’s trust fund and now owns nearly 8%.

This share is a key element in my SIPP.  I will continue to hold it until the talented management team have finished with their value creation!

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Create Income – become a bank

Another stream of income that I am building up ready for retirement involves me becoming a bank and lending money to people.

Yes that’s right.  Crazy as it sounds, thanks to the power of the internet, we can all become banks and lend money to people at attractive rates of interest.

The idea is based on an innovative web site called Zopa.com.  The name stands for “Zone of Possible Agreement” which is a fancy way of saying that there are interest rates that are agreeable to lenders of money (me) and borrowers of money (some other person who has registered with Zopa).

You may think that lending to a complete stranger is a foolish thing to do.  What about bad debts?  Will you ever see your money again?

Luckily Zopa takes care of  all this.  For the 1% margin that they take, Zopa undertake strict credit checks on every borrower (using the save credit rating agencies as the big banks).  They also use debt collection agencies to recover bad debts (just like the banks).  For added safety, lenders can chunk their loans up into small parcels of £10 to £20 minimising risk further.

As a lender you can automate the process by defining the type of person that you want to lend to (by credit score).  All repayments of capital and interest can then be automatically re-lent, creating a powerful compounding effect.

My experience is this – I have been lending money now for nine months.  I have set my lending criteria to lend just to A rated borrowers (the least risky).  I currently have 118 individual loans totaling just over £2,000.  Last month my income was just over £12 making the return just over 7% per annum.  Try getting that at a high street bank!  In this time I have suffered no bad debts and no late payments.  The income from the month has already been lent out – so I am making income on my income.

It does have downsides – your money is only accessible as people re-pay their money (36 or 60 months) so this is really only for money that you don’t need access to.

I really like the concept of earning passive income in this way.  it cuts out the huge margins that the banks earn from the public and gives financial power back to the people!

Have a go and let me know what you think.

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A review of the last quarter….

The stockmarket is taking a breather before it decides which way to head. The FTSE 100 has moved nowhere in the last three months, hovering around the 5,200 mark. However, this week saw the index fall below the 60 day moving average for the first time since July, a worrying sign. Stand by your beds and get ready for action!
My Sipp, unfortunately, has fared worse in this period, down almost 7 percent, hit by poor performances by the likes of Renesola (down 27%), Spice (down 28%) (both of which I still hold) and unprofitable brief forays into Findel, Superglass and Yell (all of which I have realised losses on).
Of course there are shares in my SIPP that have performed well (Inland, May Gurney, Synergy Health) and there are disasters that I have avoided by timely sidesteps!
In summary I have made some good decisions and some bad decisions. Looking back, in this blog, is helping me learn from both.
My new year’s resolution is to ensure that I am more rigorous in ensuring that both the fundamentals and the moving averages are both screaming “buy” before I part with my hard earned cash.

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The fallacy of buy and hold

Trend Chart

Trend Chart

Here is a very simple example of why you should never buy and hold.

Taking as a very simple example the FTSE 100 index over the last 5 years.

Scenario 1 – Buy and Hold.

You would have made roughly £100 for every £1,000 invested in January 2005.  10% over 5 years is pretty poor.  You are definitely not going to retire early on that kind of performance!

Scenario 2 – Buy and Sell.

You only invest when the trend is up and you sit on your cash when the trend is down.  Very simple signals could have told you when to get out.  The 60 day moving average crossed below the 200 day moving average in January 2008 telling you to sell up.  You would have converted your £1,000 to £1,330 by this stage.

You would have kept your powder dry until, in June 2009, the lines crossed in the opposite direction giving you the call to action!  Investing your £1,330 in FTSE 100 tracking ETFs would have given you a grand total of £1,660 now (Dec 09).  So 66% over 5 years is a bit better and, if repeated, could be the route to a more comfortable retirement.

The difference between Scenario 1 and 2 is only two transactions! One sell and one buy about 18 months apart but what a difference in performance!

Scenario 3 – Buy and Short.

Instead of sitting on your cash pile during the 18 month down-trend you invest in short ETFs.  Unfortunately these were not available to retail investors in the UK in January 2008 so my example does not show the full benefit of this method.  However, if you had invested in XUKS (short FTSE 100 ETF) in June 2008 (the earliest date possible) you would have caught the end of the FTSE downtrend (which, of course, equals an uptrend in XUKS).  The £1,330 from your sale of the FTSE would have grown to £1,510 at the June 2009 crossover, giving you more firepower for the latest uptrend.  Your £1,510 would be worth £1,890 now.

So, in summary, over 5 years your £1,000 would be worth:-

£1,100 – buy and hold

£1,660 – buy and sell

£1, 890 – buy and short

It doesn’t take expensive investment management experts to improve your investment performance dramatically.  You can do this yourself using simple moving averages!  It is less risky than investing and hoping.

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A load of BULL

Here is another great idea for a different type of investment for your retirement account or SIPP.

Using ETFs it is easy to get a finger in the commodities pie.  I think that it is good to have some exposure to commodities in my SIPP because they should show less of a correlation with global stock markets and, to my mind, the trends in commodities seem easier to spot and to be more “stable”.  I would be interested if any readers agree, or know of any research backing this up?

I currently have holdings in BULL (tracking the price of gold) and and OILB (tracking the price of Brent crude oil).  For readers in the US, holdings in these (or similar) ETFs must have been very lucrative over the last 6 months.  For those of us living in the UK (or most other parts of the world) the returns have been offset, to some extent, by the recent weakness in the dollar, but still good.

Buying ETFs is dead easy.  They are traded just like any other share and (in the UK) carry no stamp duty charge.  There are even a range of short commodity funds if you want to get really technical!

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